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Stability remains consistent and strong once again in the West Hawaii housing market. North Kona Overall sales were very stable in North Kona in January. We had 26 residential sales compared to 21 in January of last year. For condominiums, we had 20 sales compared to 26 in January of last year. That is a combined total of only 1 less sale. The median price of residential houses rose nearly $26,000 to $379,991. The condo median price was $132,700. This is down from the January 2011 median of $192,500. South Kohala South Kohala was also stable. There were 13 residential sales compared to 14 last year. There were also 13 condominium sales compared to 13 last year. Again that's a combined net of 1 less sale. The residential median price was $275,000, compared to $332,500 last year. This is a significant decrease from last month, which had a surprisingly high median price. I think given the small sample size both numbers are a little bit skewed. The truth is likely in between. The condominium median price was $489,000. That’s an increase of over $150,000 from 2011. Looking Ahead Right now in North Kona and South Kohala we have a total of 866 condos and houses on the market. 106 of those are foreclosures and short sales (12%). We have 262 houses and condos in escrow, and 143 of those are foreclosures and short sales (54%). Those numbers should show that foreclosures and short sales go fast when they are on the market. It also looks like we have quite a few sales already in the pipeline.
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We have a lot of data to look into, so let’s dive in. We’ll start with the December data, then the
4th quarter data, then a look at the year in review and what to
expect in 2012. North Kona December There were 32 houses sold compared to 36 last December, and
40 condos sold compared to 34 last year.
That’s a net of + 2 units sold.
The median price for houses was $346,450 down 8.8%. The median price for condos was $153,000 down
12.8% South Kohala December We saw 16 houses sold compared to 18 last December, and 19
condos sold compared to 26 last year.
The median price for houses was $453,856 up 47%. This number looks like some sort of
statistical anomaly; it came out of nowhere.
The median price for condos was $325,000 down 3.7%.
North Kona 4th
Quarter For the last 3 months of the year, there were 100
residential sales, compared to 95 in 2010.
There were also 76 sales of condos, compared to 69 in 2010. The median price for houses was $371,250
which was down 2.5%. Condos were hit
harder with a median price of $159,750, down 13.65%.
South Kohala 4th
Quarter The 4th quarter saw 51 houses sold compared to 54
last year. There were 39 condos sold
compared to 46 last year. The median
house price was $363,000, up significantly from $312,500. The condo median was $325,000 down significantly
from $420,000 of the 4th quarter of 2010. Overall, if you combine the number of houses and condos sold
in South Kohala and North Kona we had a net of
2 more sales. That’s pretty stable. We saw a big increase in the median price of
houses in South Kohala in December, and that
seemed to also raise the median for the 4th quarter. We’ll need to keep a good look at this moving
forward. I’ve mentioned this many times
before: when the market increases, it increases in South
Kohala houses first. These
are usually lower in price than Kona
houses and represent a value to buyers.
Eventually the price increases in South Kohala. As this happens and the gap between the
median price of Kohala and Kona shrinks, buyers find the Kona market to be a
better value, and we see an increase of prices there.
Year End Data For the entire island in 2011, there were 2,220 houses and
condos sold compared to 2,030 in 2010, a 9.35% increase. The sales volume (total money spent on houses and condos)
was $883M in 2011 and $852M in 2010. The
exact increase was $31,014,040, which was a 3.6% increase. The island wide median house price was $247,000 compared to
$260,000 in 2010, representing a 5% decrease.
North Kona For the year, North Kona
had 417 residential sales, up 9.16%. There
were 325 condos sold, up 6.21%. We
finished the year with a median residential price of $370,313, which was down
8.79%. The condo median price was
$170,000, which was down 21.66%.
South Kohala There were 214 residential sales in South
Kohala, and increase of 18.89%.
There were 230 condos sold, up 27.78%.
The South Kohala median residential price
was $335,500, up from $333,000. This is
the first time in 5 years that we finished the year up in median price in
either South Kohala or North Kona. It’s a very modest increase, but an increase
none the less. Again, South
Kohala houses tend to be a harbinger of things to come. South Kohala
condos had a median price of $344,500, down 9.46%.
Looking Toward 2012 I believe that 2012 will be the best year to buy in quite
some time. We have a number of factors
that make me feel this way. First,
interest rates are hovering around 4% for well qualified buyers. That is a very low number and is a
substantial decrease to your cost of ownership.
Second, we have about a year of market stability. In years past we had a difficult time seeing
the bottom of the market. It is looking
like we are in it now. With the general
feeling that things have stabilized, we will see more money entering the market
because buyer who have been sitting on the sidelines will be more secure than
in years past. However, I do not believe
that this will cause a significant increase in median price. We expect to see more foreclosures enter the
market after the summer of 2012 and that will help with the limited supply we
have now. This leads me to the third
reason that I like 2012 for buying. Your
choices for purchase will increase. Right
now supply is pretty tight, and while there is money on the sidelines waiting
to enter the market, there are not enough quality listings. When we do see a listing with a low price, we
are seeing multiple offers, often above list price, often cash. If you are looking at buying a property and
it is important to you that you get the lowest possible price, you need to be
ready to make an offer within 5-7 days of the listing hitting the market. It can be difficult to pull the trigger so
quickly, but there are many buyers willing to do so, and those other buyers are
your competition.
If you are considering selling, you will be best served by
listing your house in the next 6 months.
Again, we expect to see more properties on the market in the second half
of 2012, and those houses will be your competition. If you list in the second half of 2012,
expect it to take longer to sell. Mike Drutar R(S) Accredited Buyers Representative, e-PRO
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We are seeing fewer distressed properties on the market. Currently there are 2393 active and in escrow listings of houses and condos on the entire island. 349 of those are short sales (14.5%), 66 are pre-foreclosure (2.7%), and 194 are bank owned sales (8.1%). So, distressed sales make up about 25% of the listings. We have had a total of 2058 sales this year, and 869 of those have been distressed property sales, which makes up about 42% of all sales. I mention this because distressed properties represent a good value compared to other properties. Often, people are put off by a short sale listing. Generally speaking, the banks have done a good job at streamlining the short sale process, and it can be a great opportunity to reduce your purchase price, if you can wait the 45 day for the bank to approve the short sale. Home Inventory Shrinking: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory_28.html We are seeing the number of homes on the market dwindle nationwide. Mortgage rates look to remain low for 2012 http://www.lvrj.com/real_estate/experts-say-mortgage-rates-will-remain-low-for-2012-134956238.html
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North Kona Res Units Sold
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Nov 2011
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32
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Oct 2011
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36
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Nov 2010
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32
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North Kona Condo Units Sold
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Nov 2011
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17
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Oct 2011
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19
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Nov 2010
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18
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North Kona Res Median
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Nov 2011
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387,000
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Oct 2011
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394,500
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Nov 2010
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408,000
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North Kona Condo Median
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Nov 2011
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179,000
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Oct 2011
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215,000
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Nov 2010
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217,500
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We see that the number of units sold continues to be very
consistent. The median prices are down,
houses are down 5.15% from last year, and condos are down 17.7% from last year. South Kohala
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South Kohala Res Units
Sold
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Nov 2011
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17
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Oct 2011
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18
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Nov 2010
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17
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South Kohala Condo Units Sold
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Nov 2011
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12
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Oct 2011
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7
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Nov 2010
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9
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South Kohala Res Median
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Nov 2011
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330,000
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Oct 2011
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320,500
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Nov 2010
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285,300
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South Kohala Condo Median
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Nov 2011
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387,500
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Oct 2011
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330,000
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Nov 2010
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470,000
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Residential sales look very stable, but we are seeing a few
more condos being sold. I don’t think
the number of condo sales is indicative of any change in the market though.
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October once again showed the market stability we have become accustomed to seeing. North Kona had 36 residential sales, up 4 from last month and up 9 from October 2010. There were 19 condo sales, up 2 from last month and down 1 from October 2010. The median price of houses was $394,500, up over 6% from last month and October of 2010. The condo median price was $215,000, down $20,000 from last year and up slightly from $208,250 in September. South Kohala had a small blip in the radar with 7 condos sold, compared to 16 in September and 11 in October of 2010. It’s tough to say if this is a trend, or if we just had a high number of condos sold in September that took away from October sales. There were 18 houses sold, compared to 19 in October last year and 15 in September. The median house price was $320,500, down 3% from last year and up from $307,800 in September. The condo median price was $330,000, down from $470,000 last year and down from $369,000 in September. I don’t want to pay too much attention to the condo median price with such a small sample size of 7 sales. Overall we have had over a year of stability In October of 2010 we had 74 sales in North Kona and South Kohala, in September we had 83 and in October we had 80. Year to date prices are down a little, but not in freefall. We had expected to “turn the corner” late this year with the year to date median price for the island equaling the 2010 median price. That won’t happen. Right now the island median residential price is down 5.95%
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September continued the trend over the last few months of a stable real estate market. Units sold are not really gaining or slowing with any consistency, and the median prices are doing the same as well. Overall for September we had a total of 3 fewer sales of houses and condos in North Kona and South Kohala when compared to last September. In North Kona we had 32 residential sales in September compared to 33 in August, and 20 condos sold compared to 27 in August. The median price for houses was $373,694 and increase of 9% over last September, and way up from the August number of $329,000, which seemed very low at the time. In South Kohala there were 15 residential sales in September, same as last year and off from 18 in August. We saw 16 condos sold compared to 14 in September of last year and down from 24 in August. The median price of houses was $307,800 down 5% from last September and down from $329,000 in August. Overall, things seem pretty flat on a monthly basis with some small market flux here and there. We also have our 3rd quarter numbers. Since we are in a relatively small market here, I tend to believe our quarterly numbers do a better job of accurately showing where the market. For the 3rd quarter of the year, North Kona saw 98 residential sales, an increase of 15% from last year. There were 77 condos sold, for a 5% increase. The median residential price was $346,701 down from $399,500 last year. The condo median price was $180,000, down from $198,100 last year. South Kohala had 51 residential sales, and increase of 3 units from last year. Condos saw the biggest gains with 59 sales compared to 47 last year for an increase of 25%. The residential median price was $330,000 down 4%. Condos in South Kohala had a median price of $341,000 down from $375,000 last year. Overall we see very similar numbers of units sold over the last year and from month to month. The data was a little more clouded when it comes to price though, with most data showing prices going down, but a few exceptions. Right now, low interest rates might speed up the market a little bit.
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North Kona There were 31 residential sales in North Kona last month. August of 2010 saw 28 and July saw 33, so we continue to look stable. We saw 27 condos sold, same as last year and just below the 30 from July. The median price for residential sales was $329,000 a nearly 20% decrease form $408,500 last year. And down from $353,000 in July. August had a median condo price of $235,000 recovering very strongly from $137,000 in July, and up 46% from $160,000 last year. NOTES FROM THE LOW JULY SALES IN LAST MONTHS REPORT “Looking at the individual sales (I felt that number needed some serious investigation) we had a lot of sales of very small, old condo units. These are units in complexes that had very few sales in recent months, and all of the sudden had many sales. The effect was to drive up the units sold for the month, while driving down the median. So, I think we should not get worried about the low median price of condos, but we should also not get overly excited on the units sold.” As I expected, they July number was an anomaly. South Kohala South Kohala continues its stability. There were 18 sales up from 17 in July and 17 last year.. Year to date, the South Kohala market has seen a 33% increase in units sold compared to last year. The condo market in Kohala grew with 245 sales compared to 18 in July and 15 last year. Year to date, condos sold in South Kohala are up over 45%. The median price of residential units sold was $329,000 down from $370,000 in July and down 3% from last year. The median condo price was $324,750 down form $372,250 in July and down from $355,000 last year. What’s Ahead Interest rates have plunged. National averages have been under 4% for the last few weeks. I don’t think any of us ever thought we would see this in our lifetimes, 30 year fixed rate loan with a number in the 3’s! There is a good amount of foreclosure inventory on the way as many banks have decided to do only judicial foreclosures. These take more time and as a result, there are more foreclosures in the “pipeline” which should start hitting the market in 6-9 months (that’s the rumor at least). Hopefully that pause will alleviate a severe market decrease. For many buyers sitting on the sidelines, the low rates and the increase inventory in a few months will be the best opportunity to make a purchase. When we see all these properties hit the market, it will be time to buy.
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North Kona There were 33 residential sales in North Kona last month. July of 2010 saw 23 and June saw 41, so we are down a little bit from earlier in the summer. We saw 30 condos sold, up from 23 last July and close to the 33 we had in June. The median price for residential sales was $353,000 which was substantially from July last year when we had a median of $450,000. The median of June was $399,000. We will need to see if next month recovers and July was just an aberration. The median price in condos was also way down from last year. July had a median condo price of $137,000 which is one of the lowest numbers we have seen in a long time. Last July that number was $220,000 and June had a median of $211,000. Looking at the individual sales (I felt that number needed some serious investigation) we had a lot of sales of very small, old condo units. These are units in complexes that had very few sales in recent months, and all of the sudden had many sales. The effect was to drive up the units sold for the month, while driving down the median. So, I think we should not get worried about the low median price of condos, but we should also not get overly excited on the units sold. South Kohala South Kohala looks more stable right now. There were 17 residential sales compared to 16 last July and 19 in June. Year to date, the South Kohala market has seen a 40% increase in units sold compared to last year. The condo market in Kohala is also stable as well with 18 sales compared to 18 last year and 16 in June. Year to date, condos sold in South Kohala are up over 40%. The median price of residential units sold was $370,000, about even with last year when we had a median of $362,500 and up from $345,000 in June. The median condo price was $372,250 which was down from $399,500 last year and $462,500 in June. What’s Ahead The next few months should be interesting. With the recent financial downgrade of the US credit rating, and changes in the foreclosure process, we will likely see a pause in purchasing. There is a good amount of foreclosure inventory on the way as many banks have decided to do only judicial foreclosures. These take more time and as a result, there are more foreclosures in the “pipeline” which should start hitting the market in 6-9 months (that’s the rumor at least). So, while there may be a decrease in demand due to changes in the financial market, there will also be a pause in the supply. Hopefully that pause will alleviate a severe market decrease.
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As we enter the midway point of the year, we have seen a mostly stable market. We have been keeping our eyes open for signs of a real estate “double dip” and so far we have had very mixed data. We do expect to see foreclosures keeping prices where they are, and there may be some declines in certain segments of the market, but overall we do not seem to be seeing the large drops across the board of a few years ago. We’ll look at June’s numbers and the 2nd Quarter numbers. June Data North Kona We had 41 residential sales in North Kona last month. In May we had 35 and last year we had 45 for June, so it looks like we are in the same ballpark. We had 31 condos sold for the month compared to 32 last year and 35 in May, so again we are in the same ballpark. The median price for residential sales was $399,000 which is down a little from last year when the median price was $420,000. Last month the median was $421,000. The condo median price was $207,000 which was up a ridiculous 45% from last years number of $142,500. This looks to be a bit of an aberration since we had a median of $167,000 in May South Kohala South Kohala had 19 residential sales after we had 20 last year and 24 in May. We saw 16 condos sold compared to 19 last year and 23 in May. The median residential price was $345,000 compared to $317,000 last year and $315,000 in May. That’s a pretty big jump, we’ll keep an eye on this to see if it holds in the months ahead, but I expect it will drop next month. The median condo price was $462,500 up from $335,000 last year (38%) and up from $385,150 in May. We see far fewer of the lower priced resort condos than last year, and we are now seeing some of the higher priced resort condos starting to sell. 2nd Quarter 2011 Entire Island This is where we start to see some possible downtrend in the market. Second quarter residential and condo sales for the entire island totaled 586. Last year that number was 612 so it looks pretty flat with only a 4.2% decline. However we are still up year to date by 5.9%. Median residential for the island is down 1.95% year to date. North Kona Units Sold 
North Kona Median Price 
South Kohala Units Sold 
South Kohala Median Price 
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North Kona There were 36 residential sales in North Kona last month. That’s pretty much in line with last year (34) and last month (38). We saw 35 condos sold, up from 32 last May and way up from 18 which we had last month. The median price for residential sales was $421,000 which was down 5.5% from $445,650 last year. Year to date North Kona residential is down 1.2% from last year from $405,000 to $400,000. The condo market has seen much less stability. One of the best things about condos is that you don’t have to clean the pool, tend to landscaping, paint the exterior, or any of the other maintenance duties of home ownership; you simply pay the monthly maintenance fees and it is done for you. The negative of that situation is that when some of your fellow neighbors stop paying their maintenance fees, it can cause you problems. There are some condo complexes that are having to reorganize due to owners not paying their maintenance fees. As these situations happen and other condo associations (which are remaining solvent) are seeing high delinquency rates, banks are becoming hesitant to lend money to buyers for these properties. This limits the possible buyers to those who have cash, which drives prices down even more. So, while we see stabilization in the residential market, the condo market continues to drop. This presents a buying opportunity, but it is not without risk. The median price for condos was $167,000, down 22% from $215,000 last May, and down from $180,000 last month. I would point out however, that we are seeing a severe decrease in condos on the market compared to last year. South Kohala South Kohala continues to pick up momentum again this month. There were 24 residential sales compared to 10 last May and 15 last month. Year to date, the South Kohala market has seen a 60% increase in units sold compared to last year. The condo market improves in Kohala as well with 23 sales compared to 19 last year and 17 last month. Year to date, condos sold in South Kohala are up 70%. The median price of residential units sold was $315,000, down from $334,500 last year but up from $300,000 in April. The median condo price was $385,150 which was up from $370,000 last year and $320,000 last month. What’s Ahead …more of the same, which is to say some good and some bad. The truth is that we are past the days when the news was all bad, and in the end, that is an improvement. I did see a few more orders from banks seeking valuations on their shadow inventory at the end of May, but nothing substantial. One of the biggest changes in the months ahead will be related to the government no longer backing large loans (over $700k). This could make it more difficult to get large loans, which would in turn drive down the prices of those larger more valuable properties, which would in turn drive down the prices of the properties below them, and so on. It remains to be seen how much of an effect this will have. |
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Aloha, As I mentioned last month, April was expected to have numbers lower than April of last year. This was not due to a slowdown in the market, but more about the fact that April of last year was very strong. The final numbers are in and it looks like sales were down slightly for houses and down quite a bit for condos. North Kona We had 38 residential sales in April which was down from 44 in April 2010 and 42 last month. Condos had 18 sales, down 33% from last April’s 27 total and down 56% from 36 last month. The median residential price in April was $368,000. That’s down from $410,000 last April and also down from the same amount last month. Our median price for the year is down just 1% from last year, so we appear to have some stabilization. The median condo price was $180,000, down from $236,000 last April and up from $162,000 last month. The median price for the year is down 31% from last year. South Kohala There were 15 residential sales in April, the same as April 2010 and down from 24 last month. There were 17 condo sales up from 14 last April and down from last months amazing number of 35 sales. I would not say that there is a shortage of condos in the South Kohala market, but the inventory has been reduced drastically from just a few months ago. As I mentioned before the South Kohala condo market was hit hard by foreclosures and short sales and the bank were aggressive (after a long delay) in reducing their condo holdings. We are seeing fewer bank owned condos in this market than we did before. The median price for condos was $320,000, down from $352,000 in April of 2010 and down form $399,000 last month. Year to date median price for condos is down 13% from last year.
What’s Ahead? I expect next month will see about the same number of sales as last May. There has been a lot of talk about a double dip in the real estate market; that prices will drop again to a point even lower than we saw before. It appears that nationally we are seeing that now. I’m still not sure that we have that here yet. It’s important to note that here on the Big Island we have different economic influences than the rest of the nation. We are more at the mercy of construction and tourism than anything else. Nationally, the bank owned property saturation is increasing, driving down prices. I’ve mentioned in the past that I do work for banks where they have me go out to properties that are distressed (going into foreclosure, short sales) and give the bank a price opinion. For me, I can get a general idea of the shadow inventory (homes that are not on the market now but are in the foreclosure process and will eventually be on the market) by how much the bank send me out to properties for these valuations. When things were at their worst, I was doing 30 of these a week. In April I did maybe 10. The long and the short is that I’m not so sure that we will see a drastic increase in the number of bank owned properties on the market. National Home Price Change (2008 to 2011)
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The end of the first quarter is already upon us, and the news continues to show strengthening in the West Hawaii market. Even negative data is balanced by positive data. North Kona The North Kona residential market continues to improve by all measures. For the quarter we had exactly 100 houses sold, up from 79 in the first quarter last year and up from 93 in the last quarter. The median price was $407,500, again up from last year by 4.4% and up from last quarter by 7% from the last quarter. So, North Kona residential is up on all counts. We will see a decrease in the next quarter when compared to the previous year, mainly because Q2 2010 was pretty high. The most important thing going forward is that we are only $2,500 below the median price for 2010. Simply put, we are pretty stable and NOT seeing freefall. The condo market is different. Sales were up; we had 85 sales this quarter, compared to 73 a year ago and 68 in the last quarter, the second highest quarter in the last 4 years. However, prices are WAY DOWN. The median was $172,000, the first time below $200k is a very long time. A year ago the median was $259,000, and last quarter it was $225,000. The following goes for both North Kona and South Kohala condos: banks are selling these as fast as they can and they are taking big losses to do it. If you own a condo, now is not the time to sell. In fact, it is about the worst time to sell. Houses are so cheap that many buyers do not see the value in condos. This means the condo sellers have to reduce prices drastically to initiate a sale. The important thing is that they have finally realized that they need to do this, so prices have dropped and condos which have been on the market a long time are finally selling at a pretty fast pace. South Kohala The South Kohala residential market continues to make very small moves. 54 for the quarter compared to 33 last year and 53 last quarter. While year versus year looks good, up 63%, I would have expected to see more sale than last quarter by a larger margin. The median price was $330,000 this quarter compared to $373,500 last year but UP from $305,000 last quarter. It is pretty hard to interpret that data in any way with much confidence. The condo market is incredible compared to where it was 2 years ago. First, understand that the South Kohala condo market is VERY different from the North Kona condo market. Many people buy a condo in Kona to live. Many more people buy a condo in Kohala to play. These are often vacation properties that are used a few months of the year and then rented out a lot of the other time. We had 76 sales compared to 35 last year for an increase of 117%. 2 years ago we had 12 sales for the entire 3 months! In the last quarter we had 45 sales, an increase of 68%. The median price was $360,000, down from $479,500 last year, $466,000 last quarter. I would note that Q2 last year was $354k and Q3 last year was $379k. The market for condos in Kona and Kohala are different, but banks are still dropping prices and selling as many as they can, and there are obviously buyers who have been waiting for this. Overall, we continue to see strength in the market. We are all seeing more buyers calling the office and more real estate activity. Hopefully we will continue to see modest, gradual gains. I had mentioned that the bottom should be sometime late this year, but things might be heating more than quickly than I had anticipated.
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North Kona
We continue to see signs of improvement in the real estate market. North Kona had 35 residential sales compared to 21 in February of last year and 20 in January. Condos sold hit 23 compared to 24 in February of 2010 and 26 in January. Year to date we have seen a 27% increase in North Kona Homes, and a 8.8% increase in North Kona Condos sold. the median price for residential sales was $430,000 up 4.5% from last February and up from $330,000 in January . The median condo price was $149,000 down 42% from last February and down from $210,000 last month. Year to date median price is up from last year for homes, 4.58%, while condos are down 31%. Expect to see a pulling effect soon for the condo market in Kona. As the cost of homes rise, condos look more appealing and we start to see more condo sales. South Kohala
South Kohala residential finally had a good month by some measure. We had 16 residential sales compared to 8 in February last year, and 13 last month. We had a staggering 28 condo sales compared to 11 last year and 13 in January. Strong numbers all around. I don’t think we will see quite this volume next month, but it’s nice to finally see South Kohala have a good month. Year to date residential sales are up 57%, condo sales are up 127%. Why are we seeing so many sales? There is value in South Kohala. I’ve mentioned in the last few months that South Kohala was severely lagging in sales while Kona was seeing a recovery. Well, the market has spoken and money is now moving into the Kohala market. We see this dynamic play out over and over throughout the years. At this point in my real estate career, it’s pretty easy to spot. First, prices go up (or hold compared to other markets on the island) in North Kona residential. This lasts for a little while, then buyers see the value in their “second” choice; Kona condos and South Kohala. We then start to see those numbers improve while Kona holds steady. Eventually the prices and value of the Kohala market and the condo market become less appealing when compared to Kona Residential. At that point we see Kona residential sales go up again, and the process starts all over. This is based on the idea that for many (not all) buyers North Kona residential is the preferred place to buy. If you are looking at other markets besides north Kona, you can start to see when prices are about to go up. The median residential price was $330,000 compared to $355,000 last year and the exact same as last month. The median condo price was $367,000 compared to $445,000 last year and $335,000 in January. In short, things are picking up. Usually I like to have this report out by the 6th, but I have been so busy that I just have not been able to dedicate the time until today. Next month we will be on time for out 1st quarter 2011 report. I expect to see an increase in sales across the board, with a price increase for North Kona Residential (remember, that means the other markets will soon follow!)
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North Kona We saw 20 residential sales compared to 23 in January of last year and 35 in December. January is usually a lower month; sales in January are on contracts written in December and late November, times of the years when peoples attention is not on purchasing a property. So while the numbers are down significantly from December, they are about in line with January of last year. Condos sold hit 26 compared to 21 in January of 2010 and 34 in December. The median price for residential sales was $353,250 down 3% from last January and down from $389,500 last month. The median condo price was $210,000 down 17% from last January and up from $176,000 last month. South Kohala As I have mentioned recently, South Kohala residential is recovering more slowly than North Kona. There were 13 sales compared to 11 last year and 17 in December. We had 13 condo sales compared to 7 last year and 25 in December. Those are some very mixed numbers brought about by a small sample size. However, there is a trend for more condo sales in South Kohala than a year or 2 ago. There was a lot of building of resort condos in the area over the last decade, and the resort condo market was hit the hardest by the downturn and now shows the most room for improvement. The median price was $330,000 compared to $320,000 last year and $305,000 in December. The median condo price was $335,000 compared to $375,000 last year and $350,000 in December. Looking Forward...and back Last month I posted an article in my blog from the Honolulu newspaper which showed that the market in Oahu had turned the corner. In 2010 the median price for the year was higher than the year before, after 2 years of decline. Other articles I read say that there may be a double dip, or that a double dip has already started. Every market is different as they say, and Hawaii certainly falls into that category. While some places on the mainland are struggling, and Oahu is getting stronger, we are somewhere in between. Oahu has a few factors that we do not have on the Big Island. Oahu has a strong military presence and spending, large shipping port, and is a Pacific business hub, in addition to tourism. We on the Big Island are much more reliant on tourism. As a result it is taking us longer to see the same recovery. While emailing with one client I felt the need to understand exactly where we are in terms of median price change. To put is simply, prices are still going down, but not as much as before. It looks like we will see the median price of this year equal the median price of last year sometime around the end of the year, or the beginning of next year. I have attached a graph showing the Median Price Change for the entire island over the last few years. The final median price for houses on the island in 2010 was $255,000 and for condos it was $270,000. When we hit those numbers for this year we will have seen the bottom of the market somewhere between 2010 and when we hit that number again. We are only one month in and right now the median is $220,000 for houses and $219,000 for condos. Again, January is a low month in terms of units sold, so this number will change as the months go on, sometimes dramatically. 
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