We have a lot of data to look into, so let’s dive in. We’ll start with the December data, then the
4th quarter data, then a look at the year in review and what to
expect in 2012.
North Kona December
There were 32 houses sold compared to 36 last December, and
40 condos sold compared to 34 last year.
That’s a net of + 2 units sold.
The median price for houses was $346,450 down 8.8%. The median price for condos was $153,000 down
12.8%
South Kohala December
We saw 16 houses sold compared to 18 last December, and 19
condos sold compared to 26 last year.
The median price for houses was $453,856 up 47%. This number looks like some sort of
statistical anomaly; it came out of nowhere.
The median price for condos was $325,000 down 3.7%.
North Kona 4th
Quarter
For the last 3 months of the year, there were 100
residential sales, compared to 95 in 2010.
There were also 76 sales of condos, compared to 69 in 2010. The median price for houses was $371,250
which was down 2.5%. Condos were hit
harder with a median price of $159,750, down 13.65%.
South Kohala 4th
Quarter
The 4th quarter saw 51 houses sold compared to 54
last year. There were 39 condos sold
compared to 46 last year. The median
house price was $363,000, up significantly from $312,500. The condo median was $325,000 down significantly
from $420,000 of the 4th quarter of 2010.
Overall, if you combine the number of houses and condos sold
in South Kohala and North Kona we had a net of
2 more sales. That’s pretty stable. We saw a big increase in the median price of
houses in South Kohala in December, and that
seemed to also raise the median for the 4th quarter. We’ll need to keep a good look at this moving
forward. I’ve mentioned this many times
before: when the market increases, it increases in South
Kohala houses first. These
are usually lower in price than Kona
houses and represent a value to buyers.
Eventually the price increases in South Kohala. As this happens and the gap between the
median price of Kohala and Kona shrinks, buyers find the Kona market to be a
better value, and we see an increase of prices there.
Year End Data
For the entire island in 2011, there were 2,220 houses and
condos sold compared to 2,030 in 2010, a 9.35% increase.
The sales volume (total money spent on houses and condos)
was $883M in 2011 and $852M in 2010. The
exact increase was $31,014,040, which was a 3.6% increase.
The island wide median house price was $247,000 compared to
$260,000 in 2010, representing a 5% decrease.
North Kona
For the year, North Kona
had 417 residential sales, up 9.16%. There
were 325 condos sold, up 6.21%. We
finished the year with a median residential price of $370,313, which was down
8.79%. The condo median price was
$170,000, which was down 21.66%.
South Kohala
There were 214 residential sales in South
Kohala, and increase of 18.89%.
There were 230 condos sold, up 27.78%.
The South Kohala median residential price
was $335,500, up from $333,000. This is
the first time in 5 years that we finished the year up in median price in
either South Kohala or North Kona. It’s a very modest increase, but an increase
none the less. Again, South
Kohala houses tend to be a harbinger of things to come. South Kohala
condos had a median price of $344,500, down 9.46%.
Looking Toward 2012
I believe that 2012 will be the best year to buy in quite
some time. We have a number of factors
that make me feel this way. First,
interest rates are hovering around 4% for well qualified buyers. That is a very low number and is a
substantial decrease to your cost of ownership.
Second, we have about a year of market stability. In years past we had a difficult time seeing
the bottom of the market. It is looking
like we are in it now. With the general
feeling that things have stabilized, we will see more money entering the market
because buyer who have been sitting on the sidelines will be more secure than
in years past. However, I do not believe
that this will cause a significant increase in median price. We expect to see more foreclosures enter the
market after the summer of 2012 and that will help with the limited supply we
have now. This leads me to the third
reason that I like 2012 for buying. Your
choices for purchase will increase. Right
now supply is pretty tight, and while there is money on the sidelines waiting
to enter the market, there are not enough quality listings. When we do see a listing with a low price, we
are seeing multiple offers, often above list price, often cash. If you are looking at buying a property and
it is important to you that you get the lowest possible price, you need to be
ready to make an offer within 5-7 days of the listing hitting the market. It can be difficult to pull the trigger so
quickly, but there are many buyers willing to do so, and those other buyers are
your competition.
If you are considering selling, you will be best served by
listing your house in the next 6 months.
Again, we expect to see more properties on the market in the second half
of 2012, and those houses will be your competition. If you list in the second half of 2012,
expect it to take longer to sell.
Mike Drutar R(S)
Accredited Buyers Representative, e-PRO